Beginning in October 2008, Canada's unemployment rate was on the rise. However, the first month in which there was a decrease in this rate was September 2009 where the figure stood at 8.4% (as compared to 8.7% in August 2009). In October 2009, the unemployment rate subsequently increased slightly and currently sits at 8.6%.
Overall, employment has fallen by 1.9% since October 2008, and the unemployment rate has increased by 50%, but the bulk of these labour market developments occurred from October 2008 to March 2009. The number of people employed in September 2009 was almost the same as that in March 2009, so things appear to be levelling off.
Since October 2008, employment has fallen in several industries which are important to the Canadian economy; manufacturing (down 11%), natural resources (down 11%), construction (down 5.8%) and finally transportation and warehousing (down 5.8%). Despite these notable decreases, some sectors have seen an increase in the employment rate, such as information, culture and recreation (up 4.8%) as well as finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (up 4.4%).
Spotlight on selected provinces
As each province differs substantially in terms of the structure of its economy, it is important not only to consider the national unemployment trends, but also the provincial ones.
Ontario appears to be the hardest hit by the economic downturn. Since the employment peak in October 2008, the employment rate has declined by 3.1%, with most of this decline occurring between October 2008 and May 2009. Since October 2008, half of the province's total employment losses have been in the manufacturing sector.
Alberta suffered notable employment losses in October 2009, its unemployment rate increasing to 7.5% from 7.1% in September. Since October 2008, Alberta's unemployment rate has fallen by 3.3%, which constitutes the steepest rate of decline among all provinces.
Although British Columbia appeared to be faring well in September 2009 with its unemployment rate experiencing steady decreases since March 2009 (it reached 7.4% in September), the unemployment rate appeared to take a turn for the worst in October 2009 shooting up to 8.3%. It is important to bear in mind, however, that since October 2008, the unemployment rate has decreased by 2.2%.
In terms of recent trends in Quebec, this province has been experiencing a slower rate of decline in the employment rate than the national average (1.6% drop compared to a 2.3% drop).
Employment quality
Although these figures can provide a general idea of national and provincial trends, it is necessary to take a closer look in order to gauge concrete implications for people already working in Canada and for those living abroad hoping to find employment in Canada.
Not only is it important to consider quantity, but it is also important to consider the quality of employment. When the employment figures are split into full-time and part-time jobs, it appears that the full-time employment rate has declined at a considerably faster rate (2.7% decline) than the part-time employment rate (0.7% decline) since October 2008. This means that people are finding it increasingly difficult to secure a full-time or permanent job and may find themselves obligated to jump from one part-time job to another.
The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) has created an index in order to measure the quality of employment. The index, which uses figures released by Statistics Canada, is based on indicators such as part-time vs. full-time jobs, self-employment vs. paid work and the pay levels of jobs in more than one hundred industry groups. Recent figures indicate that despite the increase in employment over the past year, the quality of jobs has declined. The index has nosedived since March 2009, seeing a decrease of 3.8%. The number of high-paying jobs has decreased by 3% in the past 6 months. According to Benjamin Tal, "any benefits from a stabilizing employment level are being offset [...] by lower employment quality."
It thus remains to be seen how Canada's unemployment rate will evolve over the coming months but if the last six months are any indication, it appears that Canada has proven to be relatively resilient and will likely show signs of sustained improvement through the first quarter of 2010.
