October 31, 2017 – Canada Immigration Minister Ahmed Hussen says he is using 300,000 as the starting point for his immigration levels plan, expected this week.
Hussen is due before parliament to deliver the federal government’s immigration plan for 2018. He will set out the overall target number the government expects to welcome, and the categories under which those immigrants will arrive.
Hussen told CBC’s ‘The House’ recent that 300,000 has become ‘the new normal’ for Canada immigration levels. His plan, therefore, is not expected to see a significant increase on the numbers for 2016 and 2017, which both saw a target of 300,000.
Any small increase in numbers would likely be aimed towards economic immigrants. Hussen has said repeatedly the ‘need is greatest’ for economic class immigrants.
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The plan is likely to include majority economic, class, followed by family class immigrants, with also room for refugees, Hussen told ‘The House’ recently.
There is also speculation over whether Hussen might offer an immigration levels plan covering more than one year. The tradition has been for the next year’s immigration target to be released in the fall of the previous year. But after the latest federal-provincial immigration meeting, an agreement was reached for a multi-year approach. Whether Hussen is to deliver such a plan remains to be seen.
It is clear that Hussen appreciates the political sensitivity of the immigration levels announcement. Predecessor John McCallum delivered the 2017 plan, which maintained the overall number of immigrants from 2016, increasing the number of economic and family immigrants and dropping the number of refugees.
In doing so, McCallum established 300,000 as Canada’s new base immigration level.
Canada’s 2017 Immigration Plan
Immigration Category |
Category | Low | High | Target |
Economic | Federal Economic | 69,600 | 77,300 | 73,700 |
Federal Caregivers | 17,000 | 20,000 | 18,000 | |
Federal Business | 500 | 1,000 | 500 | |
Provincial Nominee Programs | 49,000 | 54,000 | 51,000 | |
Quebec Skilled Workers and Business | 28,000 | 31,200 | 29,300 | |
Economic Total | 164,100 | 183,500 | 172,500 | |
Family | Spouses, Partners and Children | 62,000 | 66,000 | 64,000 |
Parents and Grandparents | 18,000 | 20,000 | 20,000 | |
Family Total | 80,000 | 86,000 | 84,000 | |
Refugees and Protected Persons | Protected Persons in Canada and Dependants Abroad | 13,000 | 16,000 | 15,000 |
Resettled Refugees | 20,000 | 30,000 | 25,000 | |
Government-Assisted | 5,000 | 8,000 | 7,500 | |
Blended Visa Office-Referred | 1,000 | 3,000 | 1,500 | |
Privately Sponsored | 14,000 | 19,000 | 16,000 | |
Protected Persons and Refugees Total | 33,000 | 46,000 | 40,000 | |
Humanitarian and Other | Humanitarian and Other | 2,900 | 4,500 | 3,500 |
OVERALL | 280,000 | 320,000 | 300,000 |
Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada
450,000 New Immigrants a Year Unrealistic
The Conference Board of Canada, in its latest report on immigration, advocates a 50 per cent increase in annual immigration levels to 450,000 a year. Ottawa is well advised to exercise caution with the theoretical assumptions raised in this report.
The October 2 report, titled “450,000 Immigrants Annually? Integration is Imperative to Growth, establishes three scenarios based on three different immigration levels as a percentage of Canada’s population: 0.82 per cent (the current level was set at 300,000 for 2017), one per cent and 1.11 per cent.
The problem with the board’s calculations is the failure to address our biggest dilemma: how Canada can quickly and successfully integrate so many new immigrants.
The evidence is clear: Incremental increases in immigration numbers over the long term are likely to be a significant economic benefit to Canada. But the increase needs to take place in a managed way to allow the capacity to integrate newcomers to grow alongside the numbers.
Immigration levels in the 450,000 range are unrealistic in relation to our current levels, and are designed purely to garner headlines. Ottawa is advised to set its course more prudently.
Aging Population
Canada is reliant on immigration as it tries to reverse an aging population trend. The four provinces of Atlantic Canada are at the sharp end of the issue.
Already the region, which includes the provinces of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland & Labrador, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, has a significantly older population than the rest of Canada.
In 2016, 19.5 per cent of the Atlantic Canada population was aged 65 or over, compare to a national average of 16.5 per cent, according to another Conference Board report. At the same time, deaths exceed births in all four Atlantic provinces.
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The immigrant population in the region is significantly lower than the rest of Canada. The 2011 census revealed Nova Scotia had the largest immigrant population in the region at 5.3 per cent. The Canada-wide immigrant population is 20.6 per cent.
The challenge is not just to attract new immigrants, but also to retain them. The region is also subject to a high out-migration rate to other Canadian provinces. It is also struggling with a low birth rate.
Immigrants are needed to spur economic growth, as healthcare costs begin to rise.
There are positives the region needs to highlight in order to attract and retain immigrants.
Immigrant unemployment and wage gaps are low, while those who stay in the region can expect to earn more than those who choose to leave.
The four provinces are starting to attract more immigrants, but rates remain far short of the level required to compensate for those exiting the workforce.
Key areas the provinces need to work on include helping skilled immigrants and their spouses find jobs in their fields, removing barriers to international student employment, and developing welcoming communities.
A key immigration tool developed by the federal government in partnership with the four provinces is the Atlantic Immigration Pilot.
The AIP aims to attract 2,000 extra immigrants per year to the region above existing quotas, a number that could rise if the demand exists.
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