Canada Express Entry: 2016 Year-In-Review (Audio)

A snapshot provided by IRCC shows the make-up of the Express Entry Pool on January 3, 2017.

This came after changes were made to the Comprehensive Ranking System in November 2016. The effect will continue to be felt well into 2017. One consequence of these changes is that candidates with CRS scores of 850 and above, are likely to have received provincial nomination. This is worth 600 points.

As each draw is made, the number of candidates in the pool, from prior to the November 2016 changes, with high CRS scores, declines. Given that draws are generally conducted every two weeks, sometimes weekly, the composition of the pool quickly changes.

As the number of new entries to the Express Entry pool increases, with corresponding ITAs, CRS scores have gradually but slowly declined as a redistribution of candidate profiles, from the November 2016 continues to take place.

As CRS scores for each draw declines to the range of 400 to 449 points, which has been gradually taking place in 2017, a CRS score reduction of just two or three points can result in thousands more candidates receiving ITAs.

This will serve as a strong motivation for candidates in the lower 400s and upper 300s to pursue efforts to improve their profiles and receive as many points as possible.

The number of ITAs issued by score also illustrates how the CRS score cut-off has fallen and continues to gradually, slowly but steadily fall.

By the end of 2016 CRS scores in a given draw had never fallen below 450.  As the federal government looks to meet its economic immigrant target levels of more than 72,000 in 2017, the CRS score in the most recent draw has already dropped to 415 points.

This brings into consideration a whole new profile of immigration candidate to Canada.

Provincially, the emergence of the provinces participating in the Express Entry system under PNPs is central to the future success of Express Entry system. For 2016, this was supported by the statistics.

Following the November 2016 changes, provincial nomination has become the only route to receiving 600 points, which effectively guarantees a candidate of receiving an ITA.

IRCC numbers show an increase of more than 7,000 Canada immigration applications received in 2016, with PNP approvals, compared with 2015.

How those applications were distributed is also important to analyze. Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario dominated the number of applications received in both 2015 and 2016.

However, while B.C. and Ontario chose to nominate almost 6,000 immigrants between them in 2016, Alberta nominated only two, with effectively all of its Express Entry applications coming via federal programs.

Both B.C. and Ontario still saw the majority of its applicants come via the CEC, FSW and FST programs, with the opposite true for several other provinces.

In Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, provincial nominations dominated the overall numbers with the federal programs playing a minor role.

This shows the benefits of Express Entry for the provinces to select immigrants specific to their economic needs and draw candidates away from the major population centres.

Previously, the four mentioned provinces would have been among those struggling to attract applications. Under Express Entry, the 600 points available for their nomination means they can now play an important role to recruit candidates for provincial employers.

As a side note, on at least one occasion the federal government has chosen to conduct draws exclusively for the provincial nominee class.

This was done for the draw immediately after the November 2016 changes were made in order to clear out the higher scoring candidates and rebalance the profiles in the Express Entry pool.

It is worth noting that Ontario significantly increased its admission numbers in 2016, accounting for 37 per cent of the total admissions through Express Entry. In 2015, the figure was only 23 per cent.

The top 10 occupations invited through Express Entry took on a significantly different look in 2016 compared with 2015.

In 2015, food service supervisors and cooks accounted for a combined 16 per cent of the total ITAs issued, when a qualified job offer scored 600 points.

In 2016, the two occupations were still the fourth and fifth most popular occupations for ITAs. However, the proportion of the total declined from a combined 16 per cent to 7 per cent, or from more than 4,650 candidates to 2,233.

Changes made to the CRS scores for a job offer in November 2016 were explained by a drive to get more candidates with a broader range of applicable skills, education and experience receiving ITAs.

Candidates with a wider range of ‘core’ factors are seen as having a longer-term benefit to the Canadian economy.

In 2016, technology-related occupations accounted for the top three in terms of ITAs, with a combined 14 per cent of the total, up from 10 per cent in 2015.

Given the shortage of such high-skilled workers in the Canadian labour force, these results will have been more in line with the targets of IRCC.

With larger draw sizes and falling CRS scores in 2017, the range of occupations is expected to broaden.

The top 10 occupations in 2016 made up 31 per cent of the total ITAs, compared with 38 per cent in 2015. This indicates the beginning of the broadening as a result of the lower job offer points available.

Admission figures by occupation in 2015 and 2016 illustrate both the broadening effect of the points change and the shift towards technology workers.

In 2015, figures show cooks and food service supervisors represented 31 per cent of admissions, dropping to nine per cent in 2016.

This can be explained by the many food industry staff who in 2015, were already working in Canada under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, (TFWP), when a job offer was worth 600 points.

IRCC estimates it takes between 12 and 18 months for an immigration candidate to arrive in Canada from the time an ITA is issued. Therefore, the full extent of changes to how points are awarded post November 2016, will continue to emerge with statistics compiled from future draws.

Canada dominates the country of residence of invited candidates in both 2015 and 2016, although the proportion declines from 78 per cent to 69 per cent respectively between the two years.

This illustrates how temporary foreign workers dominated the earlier Express Entry draws because of their access to job offers and wish to settle permanently in Canada.

Given the reduction in points for a job offer and the falling CRS scores that is occurring in 2017, it is anticipated the countries of residence list will change significantly in the coming months.

A better indication of the origin of candidates is the citizenship of those admitted, which was dominated by Indian citizens in 2016 after new immigrants from the Philippines led the way in 2015.

Nearly a third of the total 2016 admission cohort had Indian citizenship, up from less than 20 per cent in 2015. The Philippines total, meanwhile, dropped sharply from 25 per cent to 11 per cent.

The dominant countries on this list are not expected to wildly vary, given the likes of India and Philippines are well established as feeder countries to Canada along with some developed nations.

If 2016 was a ground-breaking year for Express Entry, 2017 is only continuing in that trend.

The first 10 draws of 2017 through April 19 have seen 35,993 ITAs issued, already surpassing the cumulative total figures for both 2015 and 2016.

Draws have consistently seen more then 3,500 ITAs issued, with the current record high seen on March 1, 2017, when 3,884 candidates were invited to apply.

The minimum CRS score has also fallen, with the April 19 draw setting a new record low of 415.

The reasons for such a dramatic increase are four-fold.

• Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada aims to receive near the upper target of 77,000 in its annual immigration levels for economic class immigrants.
• The government now has a much clearer picture of how ITAs relate to submitted applications. It has two years of data showing how many candidates received ITAs but failed to submit their applications. The relationship between ITAs, completed applications and immigrants arriving in Canada is a key driver when setting ITA numbers. Figures show that approximately 38% of candidates who receive an ITA, do not submit a perfected application for permanent residence within required delays.
• The time it takes to complete an application from the date of an ITA, with the target being six months for those working in Canada, and between 12-18 months for candidates outside Canada. As such, IRCC is aware it must issue a certain number of ITAs during specified quarters so that those invited arrive inside a calendar year to meet annual immigration levels. This was also part of the reason behind the increase in ITAs at the end of 2016. These candidates will be figured against the 2017 immigration targets.
• The backlog of applications from the pre-2015 period prior to Express Entry, are now almost all cleared. This means that sometime soon every new federal economic class permanent resident will come through Express Entry.

Given the above considerations, federal immigration authorities will need to issue more than 60,000 ITAs to reach the 77,000 -upper target for the 2017 immigration levels under the Economic Class. (For each application for permanent residence, there are approximately 2.2 individuals being admitted to Canada, on average).

To do this, draw sizes will need to be maintained well above 3,000, with CRS scores continuing to decline.  It is very likely that many candidates with scores under 400 will receive an ITA under Express Entry in 2017.

This means candidates outside Canada with more diverse profiles now have a strong chance of receiving an ITA in 2017. Previously, applicants from overseas were required to have a master’s or doctorate degree, in addition to being under age 30 with high English or French proficiency. In 2017, many principal applicants outside Canada with a bachelor’s degree, strong language proficiencies and other attributes will receive ITA’s. It is anticipated that more than 40% of invitations will be issued to candidates residing outside Canada. This could perhaps become one of the more interesting highlights for 2017.

Perhaps it is interesting to note that the number of applicants applying under Express Entry to Canada who reside under temporary status in the United States, or who are citizens of the USA, although fairly modest in 2015 and 2016, will likely increase substantially in 2017. Restrictive immigration policies in the United States, will likely serve to dissuade a growing number of candidates from seeking admission to the USA, and apply to Canada.